Hydropower will continue to dominate power generation in Angola until 2035

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GlobalData’s latest report, “Angola Power Market Outlook to 2035, Update 2022 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape”, discusses the structure of the power market in Angola and provides historical and forecast figures for capacity, production and consumption up to 2035. Detailed analysis of the country’s electricity market regulatory structure, competitive landscape and a list of major power plants are provided. The report also provides an overview of the electricity sector in the country on major macroeconomic parameters, security of supply, generation infrastructure, transmission and distribution infrastructure, import and export scenario of electricity, degree of competition, regulatory scenario and future potential. An analysis of transactions in the country’s power sector is also included in the report.

As hydroelectricity is the main source of electricity production in Angola and its potential is likely to be exhausted, hydroelectricity is expected to increase from 71.3% in 2021 to a share of 65.5% in 2035 in its annual production. total. However, the government has set a target of 9.9 GW of total installed capacity, with an electrification rate of 60% by 2025. Hydropower capacity is expected to account for 6.6 GW of the total target. Therefore, Angola needs a well-planned infrastructure plan to meet the demand. It has been estimated that the country has a potential of 18 GW in hydroelectricity.

Angola’s energy demand is expected to experience an upward trend, based on the rate of electrification in provincial capitals, municipal townships and communal townships. The country plans to give priority to the extension of the network in order to electrify the maximum number of municipal and communal cantons. To ensure a secure supply of electricity, the country is increasing electric capacity in all subsystems and relying heavily on hydroelectricity and partially on gas and oil.

Increasing the availability of electric power to diversify the economy and meet the growing energy demand of a growing population is among the highest priorities of the Angolan government. To achieve the objective of 9.9 GW of total installed capacity and an electrification rate of 60% by 2025, the government has implemented an ambitious infrastructure plan. Current electrification rates are estimated at 43% in most cities and less than 10% in rural areas.

Angola introduced the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) as early as 2011. The plan estimated the country’s low-cost hydropower potential at around 18,000 GWh and estimated to meet its current and future needs, exporting also excess electricity to the region. . The program also recognized the potential for reducing deforestation, the clean energy solution, and small and micro power plants. In 2020, nearly two-thirds of Angola’s electricity was generated by hydropower. Hydropower will contribute 6.6 GW out of 9.9 GW of planned capacity, as part of the “Angola 2025 Long Term Strategy”.

Real GDP (USD, 2010 prices) increased from $83.8 billion in 2010 to $93.01 billion in 2021, growing at a CAGR of 1.0%. GDP observed a decline in 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Angolan government has implemented nationwide lockdowns to curb the spread of Covid-19, which has led to a reduction in overall demand. Between 2021 and 2030, the economy is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.8%, reaching $119.04 billion in 2030.

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