Coal will dominate Vietnam’s power generation over the next decade, says GlobalData

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During the period 2020-2030, renewable energy generation in Vietnam is expected to increase its share from 5.1% of total generation to 17.4%. Despite this, coal-fired power generation is estimated to reach 177.7 TWh by 2030, contributing nearly 39% of total electricity generation in the country, maintaining its current dominance, according to GlobalData, a major data and analytics company.

According to GlobalData’s report, “Vietnam Power Market Outlook to 2030, Update 2021 – Market Trends, Regulations, and Competitive Landscape”, Vietnam’s electricity consumption will increase from 217.1 TWh in 2020 to 361.5 TWh in 2030. In 2020, the total electricity generation in Vietnam was 241.1 TWh, of which 104.9 TWh (or 43.5%) came from coal-fired power plants.

In February 2020, the National Steering Committee for Electricity Development presented a proposal to curtail the development of new coal-fired power plants due to financial restrictions and local environmental concerns. Similarly, in March 2021, Japan’s “Mitsubishi Corporation” announced its withdrawal from the development of a 2 GW coal-fired power plant due to concerns about climate impact.

Aditya Sharma, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Vietnam has become one of the major industrial hubs in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. The country has already abandoned its plan to develop nuclear energy due to financial problems. In addition, hydroelectric generation has a highly volatile nature threatened by lower rainfall and a series of abnormal weather conditions in recent years.

Although the government plans to significantly increase its renewable energy capacity by 2030, this will not be enough to support the country’s growing demand. The rapid development of renewable energy projects has resulted in grid overload due to inefficient grid management and poor grid infrastructure, which has limited the growth of renewable energy.

Mr. Sharma concludes: “As a result, Vietnam is increasing its coal-fired generation to support the growing demand. Over the past five years, Vietnam has gone from being a net exporter of coal to a net importer. Vietnam’s coal imports increased by more than 50% year-on-year in the first half of 2020.”
Source: Global Data


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